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In 2017, the RMB exchange rate stopped the trend of three consecutive years of depreciation and ended with an annual increase of over 6%.
The afternoon of January 9, 2018, the RMB exchange rate, short-term plunge! Offshore renminbi dollar afternoon fell below 6.53 mark, then rebound, as of 18:10, at 6.5300 yuan, down 330 points in the day. Dollar in the onshore official closing price of 6.5207, for more than a week closing low, compared with the previous day's official closing price fell 251 points, compared with the previous trading day closing plate fell 223 points. Aluminum Anodize Custom Cnc Machining Parts Bulk Production
It is worth noting that this is a period of nearly a month, the RMB exchange rate for the first time to usher in decline". The data showed that between December 13th and January 8th last year, the exchange rate between the RMB and the dollar had risen by 1419 basis points. In January 10th, the RMB was adjusted to 239 basis points against the dollar in the middle price, which was reported to 6.5207. The middle price of the previous day was 6.4968, at 16:30 the closing price was 6.5207, and the night at 23:30 was 6.5285.
Recently, there seems to be more and more sound about the proper depreciation of the RMB. But this time the RMB exchange rate plummeted, so many do fasteners export enterprises as the long-awaited good news finally came, 2018 fasteners export enterprises to explore overseas market opportunities to! Aluminum Anodize CNC Turning Part Bulk Production
The trend of the RMB why suddenly sharp U-turn straight down?
An insider who asked not to be named in the interview said that when the US dollar index did not change significantly, the collapse of the RMB would probably be influenced by the central bank's policy message.
In January 9th, people familiar with the matter said that the Central Bank of China announced some intermediate price quotations in the near future, adjusting the parameters of the countercyclical factors in the formation mechanism of RMB's intermediate price, and adjusting it without reverse regulation. After the adjustment of the parameters, the quotation banks will no longer carry out the inverse period filtration of the diurnal amplitude of the trading day, which has been taken into effect recently. Two of them said that the other parameters of the formation mechanism were not adjusted, and the central bank did not explain the reason for the adjustment. Metal Brass Electroplate Part Bulk Production
Subsequently, the central bank reported that the RMB China reply counter cyclical adjustment of the coefficient, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar price model, calculating the "counter cyclical factor" and "counter cyclical" coefficient of the RMB against the U.S. dollar quotation line set. According to the fundamental changes of macroeconomy and the degree of Pro cyclical degree of foreign exchange market, the bidding offices will adjust their processes according to their internal quotation models to decide whether to adjust the "reverse cycle coefficients".
So, how did the RMB exchange rate go in 2018? A reporter interviewed a number of experts and gave four key words about the trend of the RMB.
One: the economic fundamentals of China
The good and bad economy of a country fundamentally determines the strength and weakness of the country's currency. Zhao Qingming China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute chief economist, told reporters that in 2017 the RMB exchange rate rise is closely related with the China economy has stabilized, the exchange rate performance is a reflection of the economic fundamentals, and Chinese stable financial conditions also played a supporting role.Hardware Brass Electroplate Product Bulk Production
Zhao Qingming believes that the China trend of economic development in 2018 as expected and accord, towards high quality development in the overall tone while maintaining stability, so the RMB exchange rate or a slight appreciation in two-way fluctuations.
Two: the dollar index
At present, the RMB is pegged to a basket of currencies, and the US dollar takes up the "big head" of a basket of currencies. The performance of the US dollar has become an instant wind vane of the RMB exchange rate. The dollar index fell nearly 10% in 2017, pushing up the RMB exchange rate.
Chinese shijingsuo Academy International Investment Research Director, Ping An Securities chief economist Zhang Ming believes that the endogenous economic recovery, the U.S. economy is still strong in the euro zone, and the Trump government in economic policy this year is expected to achieve marginal breakthrough, with the United States and Europe economic situation reversed, the dollar index is expected volatility upward in the range of 93 to the 100.
Zhao Qingming believes that although many factors bullish dollar index, but the fundamentals, the euro zone economy is obviously rising period, to support the euro continued strong, with periodic and monetary factors, in 2018 the dollar index may continue to fall, fluctuated between 95 to 85, the largest decline or will be around 8% favorable, a stronger renminbi.CNC Turning Brass Electroplate Part Bulk Production
Three: inverse period factor
5 at the end of 2017, China official announced the introduction of counter cyclical factors in the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar price model, the formation mechanism of the central parity of RMB will become "a basket of currencies closing rate + + counter cyclical change factor", then the central parity of RMB five ushered in a wave of rose".
Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, told reporters that the main purpose of adding the counter cyclical factor is to increase the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, but not to change the direction of the exchange rate trend. This point will continue in 2018.
Four: supply and demand of foreign exchange market
The exchange rate is the purchase price of the currency, and the price is influenced by the supply and demand.
Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited senior currency strategist Wang Ju believes, from the demand for Renminbi, expected in 2018 will continue to gradually reduce its exporters have accumulated over the past few years, the dollar (estimated about $500 billion), and the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio.
In addition, due to the significant progress achieved in the Chinese open capital markets, such as bonds and shares through A to start the pass will be included in the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc) emerging market index, expected more inflows of overseas institutional investors to participate in the mainland market will also promote foreign exchange. Brass Electroplate Custom Cnc Machining Part Bulk Production
Regarding the RMB exchange rate, Wang Ju pointed out that the RMB exchange rate with reasonable value and two-way fluctuation is the best choice for China's economic reform demand and the current economic development status, and helps the management to deal with various complex tasks such as deleveraging and growth protection. In 2018, it is expected that the RMB will show a two-way fluctuation around the 6.6 line of the exchange rate, and the amplitude is expected to be greater than the fourth quarter of 2017.
The central bank counselor Sheng Songcheng held in Shanghai in January 6th 2018 China chief economist forum said that the next period of time as short-term factors subside, the RMB exchange rate or callback, is expected to around 6.6, but will not fluctuate greatly.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, predicts that the RMB exchange rate will be stable in 2018 and may fluctuate throughout the year in the [6.3 and 6.7] intervals, with the volatility likely to be smaller than in 2017.
Tan Yaling, dean of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believes that this year's RMB trend will be "going up and down." "In 2018, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar may break the '7 '.Metal Zinc Alloy Electroplate Part Bulk Production