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WoodMaxkenzie: Five Major Aspects Of The Copper Market In 2018
Jan 23, 2018

2018 will be a turbulent year. The Chinese government's tightening restrictions on the import of foreign rubbish affect the flow of raw materials for the production of refined copper and copper semi-finished products, but it also shapes the market sentiment and price trajectories. This is a particularly important year, with a large number of labor contracts that need negotiation. Therefore, there is a need to focus on the performance of copper mines and smelters and on the copper prices of the exchanges and on the trend of the smelting costs.copper sand blast CNC turning product manufacturer


Given the large number of labor contracts that need to be negotiated due in 2018, the supply is expected to be tightened.
Although we expect there will not be any particularly strong growth in the price of copper in 2018, we expect the price of the transaction to be very volatile, especially given the uncertainties surrounding the impact of Chinese environmental regulations on scrap copper, but a lot of work will be done in 2018 Contract negotiations, which may lead to supply disruptions.
This year, total copper consumption is expected to slow down. Tightening of scrap supply is expected to support the higher consumption of refined copper.


In 2018, the construction industry will have a major impact on China's copper demand. Our macroeconomic forecast shows that China's economy will not slow down significantly by 2018 and is therefore unlikely to affect the overall copper demand. Construction is China's second largest area of copper, copper is the largest growth engine. Taking into account the tightening of housing policies since September 2016, the slowdown of the real estate market is also a factor we are considering. However, the extent of the slowdown is something that we need to pay special attention in 2018. On the other hand, after the Central Economic Work Conference, Lanzhou, a second-tier city, relaxed its housing policy. If more cities follow Lanzhou, the demand for copper will be better.CNC Milling Aluminum Sand Blast Part manufacturer

 Environmental problems have been a top issue in China for the past few years. Environmental regulations 2018 may have further impact on the following aspects:

The policy of tightening Class 7 copper scrap, scrap copper traders and Type 6 scrap copper will begin to have an impact on the copper market by 2018. The active implementation of this policy will lead to higher refined copper consumption in China and a strong demand for copper concentrate. At the same time, domestic scrap copper may not be able to cope with the higher copper prices and the consumption of imported scrap copper. We also note that in 2017 some disassembly factories suffered a disruption in supply of scrap due to environmental pressure.

Environmental tax will be effective from 2018 onwards, replacing the previous sewage charges. Although different provinces adopt different tax rates, according to our analysis, the actual tax rate of refined copper is less than 100 yuan / ton even for smelters facing higher tax rates.  

The market speculates whether "dirty mine" can be imported into China. However, as we have learned, local customs authorities have been restricting the import of "dirty mines". Due to China's increasing emphasis on the environment, we do not think the restriction will be canceled this year.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, some smelters in Shandong were ordered by the government to stop production to combat environmental pollution. Jiangxi Copper Guixi smelter was forced to suspend production for a week due to water pollution problems, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals are also subject to government pressure to stop production. As environmental laws and regulations become China's top priorities, we may see more such incidents that may affect China's refined copper output in 2018.CNC Turning Aluminum Electroplate Part manufacturer

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